Trade review and recommendations for trading the European currency

The test of 1.1669 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I also did not see any other entry points.

In the afternoon, important U.S. data is expected: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, along with consumer spending and income figures.

These indicators serve as key signals reflecting inflationary pressure and consumer sentiment dynamics, making them crucial for analyzing the current state of the U.S. economy and anticipating future Federal Reserve decisions. Special attention to the PCE index is due to the fact that the Fed uses it as its primary inflation gauge. If the actual PCE reading exceeds forecasts, this may indicate persistent inflation, which could force the Fed to slow down its rate cuts. This would provide a good reason to buy the U.S. dollar against the euro later this week. If the figure matches economists' forecasts, it is unlikely to trigger significant market moves.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1689 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1729. At 1.1729, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A rise in the euro is more likely after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1669, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1689 and 1.1729.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1669 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1635, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1689, at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1669 and 1.1635.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.