empty
14.07.2025 12:41 AM
British Pound. Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

Over the past two weeks, the pound has declined more than the euro, yet the wave patterns of both instruments are almost identical. Accordingly, a three-wave corrective structure should also be expected for the pound, as I've noted throughout the week. As we can see, the news background over the past five days has had virtually no impact on the wave structure or market sentiment. If market participants had reacted to the news from the White House, we likely wouldn't have even seen a minor corrective wave.

The market will struggle to resist the news backdrop and push the dollar downward. For now, the U.S. currency is only being supported by the fact that all updated tariffs are set to take effect only from August 1. Over the next three weeks, trade agreements could be signed between the conflicting parties, which might lead to a reduction in tariffs. Of course, this remains speculative, especially given the current pace of deal-making. However, the market has chosen not to jump to conclusions yet.

I believe that in August, there's a higher chance of yet another postponement of the new tariffs' implementation. Donald Trump may again announce an amnesty for the "offending" countries and grant them a few more weeks to negotiate. However, the U.S. president cannot keep extending the deadline forever, and tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are not subject to negotiation.

This image is no longer relevant

Inflation, unemployment, and wage reports will be released in the UK. In my opinion, the inflation report will be the most important, as it has been accelerating recently. The Bank of England has already acknowledged this, and Andrew Bailey hinted that monetary policy easing will not be implemented in the near term. Inflation is expected to reach 3.4% year-on-year for June, which matches May's figure. Therefore, the situation is unlikely to change significantly enough to warrant a shift in the BoE's policy stance.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend segment. The wave pattern still entirely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive changes.

The targets of the trend segment may extend to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci. A corrective wave structure is expected to develop soon, so new euro purchases should be considered after its completion.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could seriously affect the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains intact.

The targets of the bullish trend are now located around 1.4017, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci of the assumed global wave 2. A corrective wave structure is now presumably forming. Classically, it should consist of three waves.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often shift.
  2. If you're uncertain about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin sends SOS signal

What comes first, the chicken or the egg? Is Bitcoin merely following US stock indexes and risk appetite? Or will the plunge in BTC/USD serve as a warning sign

Marek Petkovich 14:17 2025-08-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At the start of the week, geopolitics remain in the spotlight. The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, despite the lack of major

Irina Yanina 13:12 2025-08-18 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Modest U.S. dollar gains are holding back the growth of the currency pair, while expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand weigh on the kiwi

Irina Yanina 12:37 2025-08-18 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At the start of the new week, the GBP/JPY pair showed positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 200.00 during the Asian session. Prices remain close to the yearly high

Irina Yanina 12:35 2025-08-18 UTC+2

Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Will Be the Key Event of the Week

This week will be a pivotal test for traders betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut, as Chair Jerome Powell is set to outline his view on the economy

Jakub Novak 12:09 2025-08-18 UTC+2

The Reality is Somewhat Different

The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground, and there is nothing surprising about this. According to the latest data, U.S. retail sales, like the labor market, continue to show slowing

Jakub Novak 11:52 2025-08-18 UTC+2

Trump–Putin Meeting in Alaska: What Will It Bring to the Markets? (there is a chance of renewed growth in EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs)

On Friday, the markets focused on the key event of recent months—the summit between V. Putin and D. Trump in Alaska. Although the meeting did not produce visible results

Pati Gani 10:09 2025-08-18 UTC+2

The Market Bought the Rumor and Is Ready to Sell the Fact

Don't believe your eyes, believe your ears. At first glance, the market should react more strongly to robust retail sales data than to consumer confidence indices after all, what Americans

Marek Petkovich 09:47 2025-08-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on August 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to during the day. We believe that after unsuccessful attempts to break through the trendline

Paolo Greco 07:02 2025-08-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Fed Minutes, PMI Indices, Jackson Hole

The coming week promises to be volatile. The central event of the week—and arguably the entire month—is the economic symposium to be held at the Jackson Hole ski resort

Irina Manzenko 01:29 2025-08-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.