On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move along a trajectory known only to itself. The 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1712 was once again ignored by traders. I still do not recommend using it as a reference for trading signals—except possibly for buy signals, as the current news background continues to support growth in the euro. Over recent weeks, the bears have failed to show any real strength.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains straightforward and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, and the new downward wave has not come close to forming a lower low. Therefore, the trend remains bullish. The lack of real progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and its partners, and the low likelihood of concluding trade agreements with most countries, continue to prevent bears from launching new attacks.

This week's news cycle has focused exclusively on new tariffs that Donald Trump has introduced or is preparing to introduce. At the beginning of the week, a list of 15 countries was published, identifying those that will face higher tariffs first—among them were South Korea and Japan. Yesterday, a new list was released, including Brazil as a major new target. In addition, Trump announced his intention to impose tariffs on all imports of copper and pharmaceuticals. As we can see, this is a case of broad-based tariff hikes and the introduction of new ones. Against this backdrop, I fail to see what could give the bears a renewed sense of strength. The fact that the U.S. dollar has somehow managed to avoid resuming its 2025 trend of sharp declines does not mean it is protected from further weakness in the future. I believe the dollar may remain stable for another week, but this won't save it from another downturn. Donald Trump is doing everything he can to bring about this very outcome, while U.S. trade partners are in no rush to sign "draconian" trade deals with equally harsh tariffs.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 1.1680 level. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level of 161.8% at 1.1851. A break below this level would open the way for a decline toward the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel. No forming divergences are currently visible on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 1,188 new long positions and 4,786 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish—thanks to Donald Trump—and continues to strengthen over time. Speculators now hold 225,000 long positions versus 117,000 short positions, and the gap between them continues to grow (with only rare exceptions). This indicates strong demand for the euro, while the dollar continues to lack support. The situation remains unchanged.

For twenty-two consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Despite a significant divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed, Donald Trump's policies are seen as a more influential factor, as they pose risks of recession and other long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)

On July 10, the economic calendar contains no important releases. Thus, the market is unlikely to be influenced by any significant news today.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

I would not consider selling the pair today, as I do not view the 1.1712 level as strong. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from the 1.1680 level on the 4-hour chart, with a target at 1.1802, as the bulls continue to control the market and the news background remains supportive.

Fibonacci grids are built using 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.