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19.06.2025 09:14 AM
The Iran-Israel War Has Yet to Exert Significant Negative Influence on Markets (Limited downside risk for gold and upward momentum for #USDX remains possible)
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As expected, the U.S. central bank left all key monetary policy parameters unchanged, once again citing ongoing uncertainty about the future state of the national economy—a factor that has become especially pronounced since the beginning of Donald Trump's presidency.

Following its two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change since the start of 2025. This outcome was widely anticipated, as FOMC voting members still consider it appropriate to maintain a cautious stance, particularly amid the uncertainty surrounding the economic effects of Trump's policies—especially those involving tariffs, immigration, taxation, and fiscal policy. Despite these unclear prospects, the Fed maintains a baseline outlook for two rate cuts before year-end.

Markets reacted to the Fed's decision with minor declines in stock indices and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which pushed the ICE Dollar Index above the 99.00 level, continuing its upward trajectory. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market showed no response, as participants remain fully focused on the Middle East conflict, which remains the dominant global event with potentially far-reaching consequences. The U.S. has now openly become involved in the Iran-Israel war—previously, Washington supported Tel Aviv from the shadows, but Trump's public threats toward Tehran have escalated the conflict to a new level.

This development previously reduced demand for crypto tokens and pressured the dollar while fueling a rally in crude oil prices, which are now approaching $80 per barrel.

Why is the U.S. dollar receiving noticeable support?

There are two reasons. The first is the Fed's clear position on monetary policy. Despite plans for two rate cuts this year, the central bank effectively does not know whether it will implement them. Against the backdrop of persistently high inflation in the U.S. and the uncertain economic impact of Trump's actions, those hopes may prove illusory. The second reason is that inflation is falling in countries whose currencies are part of the ICE dollar basket, meaning their central banks will likely need to resume rate cuts to stimulate their economies. This applies to the EU, the UK, and others. The anticipated divergence in interest rate levels supports the dollar against the euro, the pound, and other basket currencies. In this context, the dollar index may again approach the 100.00 mark as early as next week.

At the same time, the dollar still faces one important limiting factor—demand for U.S. debt instruments, which are losing their appeal due to economic and geopolitical challenges and negatively affect the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency.

What can be expected in the markets today?

It is likely that the ongoing Iran-Israel war will continue to support crude oil prices, restrain demand in the cryptocurrency and equity markets overall, and limit the dollar's upward momentum despite the unclear outlook for Fed rate cuts.

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Forecast of the Day

Gold

Gold is trading lower amid ongoing hopes that the Middle East conflict may be resolved diplomatically. From a technical standpoint, the price has broken below the support line of the short-term uptrend and the 3360.00 level, which could open the way for a correction down to 3323.00. A potential sell level could be 3351.60.

#USDX

The dollar index is sitting just below a strong resistance level at 99.20. A breakout above this threshold could trigger a further rally toward 99.65. A potential buy level is 99.23.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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