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17.06.2025 09:04 AM
Middle East Crisis as a Prelude to Global War... (Limited Downside Possible for Bitcoin and EUR/USD)
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The missile standoff between the U.S. proxy Israel and Iran continues. Yesterday's unexpected departure of the U.S. president from the G7 summit in Canada sparked speculation that America might engage more directly in the Israeli-Iranian conflict. However, Donald Trump keeps insisting that the conflict must be resolved peacefully.

White House Press Secretary K. Leavitt stated Monday that Trump returned to Washington to "attend to many important matters," but later amended this explanation on social media, linking his departure directly to the Middle East situation. Many market participants interpreted this as a signal that the crisis is escalating to a level where both sides are striking critical infrastructure, prompting speculation that the U.S. might become more involved in supporting its regional proxy. Meanwhile, the president continues to take a hands-off approach, saying he's unaware or uninvolved—only intensifying the negative effects of growing uncertainty.

On these developments, crude oil prices, which had started to correct lower and energy sector stocks, resumed upward movement. Given the likely long duration and potential intensification of the conflict—particularly if Tehran retaliates by striking U.S. military bases or blocking sea trade routes off its coast (especially if aggressive Western nations join the fray)—we may soon see oil prices soar to $100, $150, or even higher. That would deliver a severe blow to Western economies and global trade overall, with all the negative ripple effects such a crisis entails.

Meanwhile, worsening conditions in the U.S. economy may force the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, which could drive inflation even higher despite already being far from the 2% target. This conflict could throw the U.S. back into an era of double-digit inflation not seen since the 1970s–80s.

In such a scenario, the U.S. dollar would lose its status as a safe-haven asset, and interest in dollar-denominated assets would fade. At the forefront would be the massive U.S. national debt, which Washington will likely never be able to repay to foreign creditors.

Considering these dynamics, one can conclude that failure to de-escalate the Middle East crisis could soon pull more countries into its orbit and trigger a new world war with catastrophic consequences.

What to Expect in Today's Markets?

Today, investors are focused on the release of U.S. retail sales data. However, it's important to note that markets remain preoccupied with the Middle East. Events unfolding there will continue to dictate risk appetite and asset flows. For now, investors remain hopeful that full-scale war can be avoided, which has so far prevented gold and oil prices from skyrocketing. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, and the U.S. dollar are consolidating in tight ranges. This behavior is likely to continue even after the Fed's policy decision tomorrow, which isn't expected to offer new insight into Chairman Jerome Powell's stance on either internal or external crises.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast for the day:

Bitcoin

BTC continues to trade in a broad but gradually declining range. The wave of negative sentiment—now amplified by Middle East tensions—puts pressure on crypto demand. Bitcoin is likely to fall further. A drop below $106,733 may trigger a move down to $104,129 and possibly to $100,350, which marks the lower boundary of this short-term trend. The sell level to monitor is $106,504.80.

EUR/USD

The pair is surging rapidly. The euro, viewed as an alternative to the dollar, is rising not because of eurozone strength but because investors are fleeing dollar assets amid fears that U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict could severely undermine the greenback. Markets have essentially abandoned the long-standing notion that the dollar, as the world's reserve currency, offers protection from financial turmoil. However, if the Fed holds policy steady, that might lead to profit-taking, causing a correction in EUR/USD. A drop below 1.1540 could spark further downside toward 1.1420. The key sell level to monitor is 1.1535.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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