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09.06.2025 12:55 AM
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview
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In the United States, as usual, there will be far more interesting events and news than in the Eurozone or the United Kingdom. Economic data will start arriving on Wednesday with the release of the inflation report. Let me remind you that while this report is undoubtedly important, in recent months, the Federal Reserve has not been making monetary policy decisions based on inflation figures. The FOMC continues to monitor the state of the economy and the labor market and is still waiting for the full effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy. Since the final tariffs on imports into the U.S. for 75 countries have not yet been determined, it is impossible to draw definitive conclusions about the trade war's impact on the economy. Therefore, the Fed will continue to wait, regardless of what the inflation numbers for May show. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 18.

The U.S. will also see the release of the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Sentiment Index. However, these reports will likely interest only the most devoted fans of statistics. Much greater interest lies in the ongoing confrontation between figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The billionaire and the multi-billionaire have started openly clashing this week, each trying to win over as many voters and consumers as possible. Their sparring primarily takes place through the media and social networks. Elon Musk is reportedly considering creating a third U.S. political force to compete with Democrats and Republicans. Undoubtedly, this will take a lot of time, but for now, Musk intends to support the Democrats and oppose the Republicans.

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The actions taken by Musk and Trump against each other also draw significant attention. I believe that the more such actions we see, the less the market will desire to increase demand for the dollar. That desire is already near zero, but it could sink even lower. In general, the main focus for the upcoming week will be on the Musk-Trump conflict rather than U.S. inflation.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will entirely depend on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The formation of wave 3 of the upward trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I am considering buying positions with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci's retracement and is even higher. It should be noted that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

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Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that do not correspond to any wave structure or type of technical analysis, but for now, the working scenario and structure remain intact. The formation of an upward wave 3 continues with the nearest target at 1.3708, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci of the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I am still considering buying positions, as the market has yet to show a desire to reverse the trend.

Main principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring changes.
  2. If there is a lack of confidence in the market, it is better to refrain from entering.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget to set Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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