empty
02.06.2025 12:52 AM
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The economic news background in the U.S. will be very strong. It's the beginning of a new month, so reports on business activity, the labor market, job openings, and unemployment will be released. If we exclude the inflation report, the above indicators are the most important for market participants. However, in recent months, monetary policy from the Federal Reserve or the unemployment rate has not been the market's primary focus. Instead, the market has been dominated by the new trade architecture that Donald Trump is trying to implement in the global economy. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that trade war news will continue to dominate next week.

Everyone should be waiting for the upcoming news, but why wait when it's already here? Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to protect American factories and manufacturers. This news alone could sharply reduce demand for the U.S. dollar on Monday.

In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI and ADP employment report on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday.

This image is no longer relevant

Furthermore, I am confident we will receive new updates on the global trade war. Trump may announce signing initial trade agreements, which would slightly ease market tensions. Alternatively, it could be new tariffs. By the way, I wouldn't exclude the European Union and China from the list of countries against which tariffs could be raised. Trump's mood changes very often. Today, he might agree to Ursula von der Leyen's request to postpone tariff hikes, and tomorrow, he could change his mind and raise them. Therefore, it's too early to relax — this story is far from over.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring unexpected changes.
  2. If you're not confident in the market situation, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in the market's direction does not and cannot exist. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

CFTC Report: The Dollar Is Being Sold Off Again. Awaiting New Revelations from Trump

Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency

Kuvat Raharjo 12:14 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum while remaining on the defensive. Traders prefer to wait for the release of key data before opening directional positions

Irina Yanina 12:10 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 1.600 and price levels last seen in 2021. Traders are eagerly awaiting the important political

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Israel-Iran Confrontation. Fed Meeting. What's Next? (I expect further decline in USD/CAD and a local pullback in gold before a new wave of growth)

Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold

Pati Gani 10:51 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: War Is No Ally to the Greenback

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair stayed within the 1.15 range and is even trying to approach the resistance level of 1.1600 despite the ongoing

Irina Manzenko 10:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, but the market does not lack news. This week, Donald Trump announced his intention to raise all import tariffs, as none

Paolo Greco 06:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 16: How Trump Is Undermining the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair will remain under the influence of geopolitics and politics in the new week. Essentially, we've been saying the same thing every day for the past four

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 16: The Israel-Iran Conflict Changes Nothing

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sharply back and forth throughout Friday. The pair traded with high volatility for two consecutive days, and there is a clear and logical explanation

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Focus on the Middle East and the Federal Reserve

The final trading day of last week ended on an uncertain note. Reacting to Middle East developments, the EUR/USD pair sharply declined on Friday, retreating from the multi-year price high

Irina Manzenko 01:30 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin Gripped by Fear

Charity begins at home. As it turns out, the 47th President of the United States' loyalty to the crypto industry is rooted in personal interests. Donald Trump and his family

Marek Petkovich 01:29 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.