empty
16.05.2025 03:54 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 16: The Market Has Once Again Confirmed the Obvious

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed only one thing—a complete unwillingness to move. We observed sideways movement throughout the day despite a fairly packed macroeconomic calendar. However, as mentioned in the previous article, while EU and U.S. reports might spark minor reactions, this data isn't enough to drive meaningful shifts. The market focuses solely on news related to the trade war or other high-profile statements by Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, we must point out the second estimate of the EU's Q1 GDP report. The initial estimate prompted traders to look optimistically at the euro, as the EU economy was reported to have grown by 0.4%. However, the second estimate showed a slowdown in economic growth. Meanwhile, U.S. data had no impact on the pair's movement.

As a result, the price pulled back slightly from Wednesday's highs but maintains a bearish trend overall. Since the U.S. has taken a path toward de-escalating the trade conflict, we assume that further strengthening of the U.S. dollar is likely. However, this strengthening will likely not be quick or easy.

On Thursday, the price rebounded three times from the 1.1179 (Kijun-sen line)–1.1185 area. In none of these instances was the pair able to reach the nearest target at 1.1234, although it approached that level closely twice. Thus, traders could open long positions, which could not have resulted in a loss. As for profits, they were possible only if the trades were closed manually.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report is dated May 6. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders remained bullish for a long time. Bears briefly took the lead but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office, the dollar has been in free fall. We can't say with certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, and the COT reports reflect the actual sentiment of large players, which can change rapidly under current circumstances.

We still see no fundamental factors for the euro to strengthen, but one major factor remains for the dollar to fall. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend will not reverse quickly. Once Trump concludes his trade wars, the dollar may return to growth.

The red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating a return to a bullish trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "non-commercial" group decreased by 2,200, and the number of shorts decreased by 2,100. Accordingly, the net position remained virtually unchanged for the week.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD initiated a fairly substantial decline, followed by an equally strong correction. The pair's further downside prospects still depend entirely on developments in the global trade conflict. If trade agreements are signed and tariffs lowered, the U.S. dollar could continue climbing back toward the levels from which it initially fell. Technical analysis and macroeconomic data currently play only a minor role. Everything depends on news concerning trade negotiations.

Key Levels for May 16: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1426, 1.1534. Ichimoku Lines: Senkou Span B – 1.1307, Kijun-sen – 1.1179. Note: These Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so consider that when interpreting signals. Also, don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the expected direction—this will help protect against false signals.

On Friday, the Eurozone has no major economic events scheduled, while the U.S. will release another set of secondary reports. The only item of interest might be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, but it is scheduled for release in the evening. Thus, we are likely to observe the same calm movements with low volatility and sideways dynamics throughout the day—unless Donald Trump once again takes center stage.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
  • Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
  • Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
  • COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 31? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair also posted another decline for the same reasons as EUR/USD — a strong U.S. GDP report combined

Paolo Greco 07:09 2025-07-31 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 31? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline almost the entire day. This time, the U.S. dollar received strong support from

Paolo Greco 07:09 2025-07-31 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 31: Hour by Hour, It Gets Tougher

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement. The decline in the euro and the rise in the dollar were essentially triggered by just one report, despite

Paolo Greco 04:29 2025-07-31 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement, although it ended fairly quickly. The macroeconomic background was weak yesterday

Paolo Greco 06:59 2025-07-30 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline, although not at the same pace as on Monday. Recall that on Monday

Paolo Greco 06:59 2025-07-30 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 30: The Pound Temporarily Loses Its Advantage

The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its downward movement on Tuesday, though much more moderately compared to Monday or last week. The reasons for the pound's decline this week

Paolo Greco 03:47 2025-07-30 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 30: The Euro Crisis Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, although during the day, it made the first attempts to halt the decline and recover. Overall, we fully supported

Paolo Greco 03:47 2025-07-30 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 29? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Monday, although the decline started much later than it did for the euro. This appears

Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-07-29 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 29? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair plunged on Monday for quite understandable, logical, and consistent reasons. Essentially, the only event

Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 29: The Pound Didn't Expect This from von der Leyen

The GBP/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Monday. The European trading session passed entirely in a flat range, but during the U.S. session, the euro pulled the pound downward

Paolo Greco 03:44 2025-07-29 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.