Bitcoin's price is hovering near a psychologically significant threshold, with market participants bracing for another upward surge or a sudden reversal that could erase short-term bullish expectations.
More chart and behavioral patterns are emerging that echo scenarios preceding historical rallies. Yet signals are also appearing that have previously marked the onset of local downturns.
So, where will Bitcoin be heading in the coming days and weeks? The answer to this question will determine the profit of thousands of traders and the fate of crypto liquidity in the current cycle.
Balancing on a Knife's Edge: Breakout or a Fake Top?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $97,030, maintaining a market cap of nearly $1.93 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of roughly $28.8 billion. The price has remained highly volatile in recent sessions, ranging from $93,592 to $97,511.
This is a textbook case of a market preparing for a breakout but not yet committing to it. The uptrend that began in mid-April remains intact despite declining volume. Price bounced from around $74,400 to a local high of $97,938 before entering sideways consolidation.
So far, there are no apparent signs of mass profit-taking, and key support around $92,000 is holding firm. Major resistance lies at $98,000 — the battleground between bulls and bears. A breakout here could clear the path to the coveted $100,000 mark.
V-Shaped Recovery or a Double-Top Warning?
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is sketching a V-shaped rebound, backed by increasing volume and confident green candles. The price has bounced from the $93,376 low and is again testing recent highs.
If BTC breaks above $97,938 with strong volume, another leg upward is likely. But if price stalls at this level and selling pressure increases, a double-top pattern may form — a classic signal of a local correction.
Support at $95,500 has proven resilient and continues to serve as a launchpad for rebounds. As long as this level holds, the bullish scenario remains in play.
Hourly Consolidation: Strength or Exhaustion?
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is consolidating just below the key resistance at $98,000. The candles show small bodies and long lower wicks, suggesting buyers are unwilling to give up easily.
However, volume is gradually tapering off — a sign the rally may be losing steam. If a breakout above $97,700 occurs on increasing volume, short-term targets can shift to $99,000.
Conversely, if the price drops below $95,500 and volume rises, a sharp sentiment shift in favor of the bears is likely.
Technical Indicators: Mixed but Loaded
Most classic oscillators—including RSI, Stochastic, CCI, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator—currently paint a neutral picture. This indicates an accumulation phase in which the market has yet to decide its direction. Historically, these periods often precede massive moves.
MACD and momentum indicators are beginning to flash buy signals. If these signals persist, they could spark the next major rally.
Moving Averages Align with the Bulls
All key moving averages, both exponential and simple (10—to 200-period), are aligned in a clear bullish formation. Price remains above them all—historically, this has been a strong confirmation of continued upward momentum.
Of particular interest: the 50-day moving average is trending upward again and may soon cross above the 200-day from below, forming a "golden cross" — a pattern that preceded Bitcoin's explosive rally from $70,000 to $109,000 in late 2024.
Fibonacci Retracements Support the Bullish Case
Fibonacci levels paint an optimistic picture on daily and 4H charts. The daily chart shows that the zone between $92,391 and $89,595 appears to offer healthy correction potential if needed.
However, the market recently bounced from the 61.8% retracement level, and as long as it stays above it, the path toward $98,000 remains wide open. On lower timeframes, consolidation between 23.6% and 38.2% retracements typically serves as a base for the next impulse.
No One's at a Loss: A Good Sign — or a Red Flag?
According to IntoTheBlock, nearly all Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, around 95%, with the rest at breakeven. While this seems encouraging (there's no selling pressure from underwater positions), history suggests such conditions often precede corrective phases.
This occurred in fall 2024 and March 2023 — when the majority of market participants were in the green, market makers often seized the opportunity to trigger distribution.
MACD and the "Death Cross": A 2024 Replay?
The weekly MACD chart mirrors the situation from August to September 2024. The indicator was below zero then, as it is now, while the price remained above the 50-week SMA.
Likewise, the "death cross" — a bearish crossover between the 50- and 200-day moving averages — occurred a month ago. Yet instead of collapsing, the market reversed upward, reaffirming a bullish stance.
This adds to the case for a large-scale rally, even in the face of traditionally bearish signals.
Conclusion: Bitcoin Trapped Between Euphoria and Correction
Technicals, sentiment, and historical patterns support continued growth. However, overwhelming market confidence and the fact that virtually no one is losing may point to the start of a distribution phase.
In the short term, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. However, from a long-term perspective — given recurring patterns, moving average alignments, and investor behavior — the scenario of a move to $120,000–$150,000 in this cycle is becoming increasingly plausible.
