empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
07.05.2025 12:32 AM
Australian Dollar Hits New Highs
Open trading account Open demo account

The Australian dollar updated its five-month high against the USD at the start of the new week. NAB (National Australia Bank) revised several of its forecasts concerning the Australian economy and the national currency. NAB now expects the AUD/USD exchange rate to reach around 0.7000 by year-end, near the highs seen on September 30 last year. According to NAB, the aussie's strength is primarily driven by expectations of further USD weakness, as the greenback continues to look increasingly vulnerable.

As for other forecasts, NAB has lowered its GDP growth projection from 2.25% to 2% and raised its forecast for the peak unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.4%. Much of the revision is due to external factors—chiefly the new U.S. tariff policy—and similar downward adjustments are being made across all major economies, including Japan, Europe, China, and the UK. Australia is less affected by the "Independence Day" trade measures, as exports to the U.S. account for less than 5% of its total exports, an undeniable advantage supporting the Australian dollar's resilience. Indirect pressure via China is a greater concern, which is why Australia is keen for the U.S. and China to reach a tariff agreement and prevent global trade wars from triggering a recession.

Solid Q1 results, manageable inflation, and growing external risks could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to accelerate the normalization of its monetary policy. There are now forecasts—particularly from NAB and ANZ—that the RBA could cut the interest rate by 50 basis points in May, instead of the 25 previously expected, followed by two additional cuts that could bring the rate down to 3.1% by August. A faster pace of rate cuts might pressure the aussie due to declining yields, but more evident signs of an impending U.S. recession could emerge by summer, which would likely place even greater pressure on the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the AUD/USD exchange rate may rise further, despite RBA cuts—this remains the base-case scenario.

Net short positions in the AUD decreased by $287 million over the reporting week, down to -$3.188 billion. The reduction is slow, and the bearish imbalance has not yet been fully neutralized. Meanwhile, the estimated fair value remains above the long-term average.

This image is no longer relevant

As previously anticipated, AUD/USD broke out of its consolidation range to the upside. The next target is the resistance zone at 0.6540/50. If markets interpret Wednesday's FOMC meeting's outcome as more hawkish, a pullback toward 0.6400/10 is possible. However, the trend remains bullish, and any downward correction would be a justified opportunity for new long positions.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Will Global Central Banks Continue to Cut Interest Rates? (Bitcoin May Resume Growth and USD/JPY May Decline) Among the economically developed nations—those that belong to the Western wing of the global economy—there is an important rule: a target of 2% inflation, specifically consumer inflation. Achieving this target
Pati Gani
09:46 2025-05-21 +02:00
1030
Fundamental analysis
Market: Do or Die! Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The S&P 500 rally from the April lows—adding $8.6 trillion in market cap—often appeared irrational. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve's
Marek Petkovich
08:23 2025-05-21 +02:00
1075
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Will Global Central Banks Continue to Cut Interest Rates? (Bitcoin May Resume Growth and USD/JPY May Decline)

Among the economically developed nations—those that belong to the Western wing of the global economy—there is an important rule: a target of 2% inflation, specifically consumer inflation. Achieving this target
Pati Gani 09:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Market: Do or Die!

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The S&P 500 rally from the April lows—adding $8.6 trillion in market cap—often appeared irrational. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve's
Marek Petkovich 08:23 2025-05-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 21: The Rollercoaster Continues

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined, unlike on Monday. While the euro's movement required searching for reasons behind the dollar's drop, the technical picture for the pound is straightforward
Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 21: The Theater of Chaos and Absurdity Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sluggishly on Tuesday, which was not surprising given the absence of news. Monday didn't bring much in the way of important news either
Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 21? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. However, the UK inflation report holds significant importance for the market, or rather, used to . As we can see, traders continue
Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-05-21 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains a Wait-and-See Approach

The market expects active measures from the U.S. central bank, while Donald Trump keeps demanding that Jerome Powell cut interest rates. It's worth noting that Powell cannot make such decisions
Chin Zhao 00:41 2025-05-21 UTC+2

The Dollar Regains Its Spirit

As the CFTC report showed, investors are still not very impressed that the US and China have managed to reduce trade tensions and take a pause for negotiations
Kuvat Raharjo 00:26 2025-05-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Weak Dollar Meets Indecisive Euro

The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the 1.1200 level, reflecting the overall weakening of the U.S. dollar. The "bearish attack" we witnessed last week ended in failure. EUR/USD sellers were
Irina Manzenko 19:35 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Euro Exhausts Bullish Momentum

Inflation in the eurozone remained unchanged in April compared to March, fully in line with forecasts—2.2% year-over-year for the headline index, and 2.7% year-over-year for the core index. This inflation
Kuvat Raharjo 19:16 2025-05-20 UTC+2

AUD/NZD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/NZD pair is declining, drawing seller interest following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to lower the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Although
Irina Yanina 19:09 2025-05-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.