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30.04.2025 09:48 AM
U.S. GDP and PCE Data Unlikely to Drastically Shift Market Conditions (Possible Resumption of #NDX and #SPX Growth)
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Markets are already fatigued by the chaos unfolding in Donald Trump's mind and among his followers. Everything remains extremely unclear, so market participants are now fully focused on today's important economic data releases, especially from the United States.

The primary focus will be on U.S. Q1 GDP figures and inflation indicators. According to the consensus forecast, the American economy is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the first quarter compared to last year. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.4% to just 0.2% — a figure so low it falls within the margin of statistical error, hinting at the real risk of the U.S. economy sliding into full-scale recession with all the associated consequences.

Today, markets will shift attention away from the now tiresome tariff narrative and focus instead on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March. The indicator is expected to show a noticeable year-over-year decline from 2.5% to 2.2% and a 0.0% monthly change versus a 0.3% increase in February. The core PCE index is also expected to fall year-over-year from 2.8% to 2.6%, with monthly growth dropping from 0.4% to 0.1%. In addition, income and spending figures will also be of interest. Personal income is forecast to fall from 0.8% to 0.4%, while spending is expected to rise from 0.4% to 0.6%.

How will the markets and the dollar react to this important data?

A GDP decline could increase demand for Treasuries as investors seek safe-haven assets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar may come under localized pressure if the inflation data confirm a drop in the PCE index. The main reason, as previously noted, would be rising expectations of a possible 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut in either May or June. In such a scenario, the U.S. stock market could gain support, as anticipation of renewed Fed rate cuts would fuel demand for equities.

Any dollar weakening is likely to be limited. The Dollar Index might fall below 99.00 but will likely remain above 98.00. This is due to expected eurozone disinflation, which could force the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to lower rates again, thereby balancing out the narrowing interest rate differentials with the Fed.

Despite the importance of today's data, it may have limited influence on asset prices, drowned out by the ongoing chaos surrounding Trump. Uncertainty remains the dominant market force.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is trading slightly above 5525.80. A decline in the PCE index would increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which supports U.S. equities. On this momentum, the contract may resume its rise toward 5637.32 and eventually 5783.00. A potential buy level is 5557.04.

#NDX

The CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures is trading slightly below 19455.00. A drop in the PCE index could serve as a basis for renewed Fed rate cuts, supporting U.S. equities. Against this backdrop, the contract could resume growth toward 20000.00 and 20330.00. A potential buy level is 19537.20.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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