The upcoming week's economic calendar is packed with important releases. As usual, the beginning of a new month brings significant macroeconomic reports from the U.S. and the Eurozone, typically triggering strong volatility for the EUR/USD pair. However, this time, the situation is slightly different—news from the "front lines" of the trade war has overshadowed macroeconomic reports. Any significant information related to the tariff confrontation will take precedence over all other fundamental factors. But if the coming days see a slow-moving situation (no escalation but no signs of de-escalation), the key macroeconomic releases should still attract traders' attention. Especially since some reports will reflect April trends, allowing for an assessment of the impact of the U.S.'s new tariff plan.
It's worth noting that the most important reports for EUR/USD traders will be published in the second half of the week. For instance, Monday is an empty day. If Donald Trump doesn't stir the markets with new loud statements, the EUR/USD pair will likely spend the first trading day in a flat movement (similar to Friday).
Tuesday
The most important reports will be released in the U.S. (during the American session) on Tuesday, April 29. Firstly, we'll see the April Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. The indicator has been declining for four consecutive months, and April may mark the fifth, with forecasts suggesting a drop to 87.4 points (the lowest since December 2020).
Secondly, the JOLTs report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) will be published, showing the number of job openings at the end of the reporting month. This figure declined to 7.57 million in February, and a further decrease to 7.48 million is expected in March.
Wednesday
China's manufacturing PMI will be published during the Asian session on Wednesday. After two months of growth, the indicator is expected to fall to 49.5 points. If the index unexpectedly remains above the 50-point expansion level, risk appetite could rise, supporting EUR/USD buyers.
Preliminary data on Eurozone GDP growth will be released during the European session. Forecasts suggest the economy grew by 0.2% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024's result. It's crucial for EUR/USD bulls that this figure doesn't turn negative, which could signal a looming recession.
Also, on Wednesday, the U.S. ADP Employment Report will be released. This serves as a sort of barometer ahead of Friday's official data. A weak result (+123,000 jobs) is expected. Even meeting the forecast (let alone missing it) would put pressure on the dollar.
However, the biggest volatility trigger for EUR/USD will be the second estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q1 2025. The first estimate showed 2.4% growth, but most experts anticipate a sharp revision down to 0.4%. Such a result would significantly weigh on the dollar, especially amid the ongoing "U.S. vs. the World" trade war.
Thursday
Thursday's key event will be the ISM Manufacturing Index. In March, the indicator unexpectedly fell into contraction territory at 49.0. In April, a further decline to 48.0 is expected.
It's also important to note that many trading floors will be closed on Thursday for Labor Day celebrations across Europe (Germany, Italy, Switzerland, France, Spain) and parts of Asia (China, Singapore).
Friday
On Friday, traders' attention will shift to the U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls report. Preliminary forecasts do not favor the dollar. Nonfarm employment is expected to grow by only 129,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the wage growth indicator may slow to 3.7%, and the labor force participation rate could drop to 62.2% (the lowest since December 2022).
If Nonfarm Payrolls match or fall short of expectations, the dollar will again come under pressure amid rising recession risks and the ongoing trade standoff.
Additionally, preliminary CPI data for the Eurozone will be released. Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 2.5%. If both indicators come out stronger than expected, the euro could receive background support, although the primary focus will be on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Conclusions
The key macroeconomic reports scheduled for the week will reveal how "toxic" the new U.S. tariffs have been. If the American economy slows to 0.4% growth—or worse, contracts—the dollar will face intense pressure, and EUR/USD could test the 1.14 area. If the U.S. economy shows resilience against expectations, the dollar could recover, with sellers aiming to push EUR/USD below 1.1300 toward the 1.11 region. If the results are mixed, the pair will likely continue fluctuating within the 1.13 range.
