empty
22.04.2025 03:12 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 22: A New Storm in the Market

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair shot up again on Monday—straight to the moon. This time, the euro gained a "modest" 150 pips in a single day, even though no macroeconomic reports were released in either the Eurozone or the U.S. and no globally significant news. Even Donald Trump refrained from introducing new tariffs, sanctions, threats, or ultimatums over the weekend and Monday. As such, predicting another surge in EUR/USD was impossible. However, we've often said that the dollar can collapse any day. For example, the pound sterling rose all of last week—even when there was no noteworthy news or events. This is the market's current policy: "Sell the Dollar."

There's no point in identifying technical patterns or formations in the hourly timeframe because there are none. We're not dealing with a classic trend where occasional corrections or pullbacks occur. It's impossible to draw a trendline or a channel based on this movement. The dollar can collapse at any moment, as it did on Monday. If Trump begins introducing or raising tariffs again, the dollar's fate will be sealed.

A relatively large number of trading signals were formed on Monday. Price respected technical levels fairly well. Unfortunately, there were many reversals, so we won't list all the signals in the chart above. Let's say that when the price moves 180 pips on a "quiet Monday," such a move can hardly be called technical, logical, or expected.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report is dated April 15. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears barely managed to gain the upper hand but quickly lost it again. The bears' advantage has visibly diminished since Trump took office, and the dollar sharply declined. We cannot definitively say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which can change rapidly under the current circumstances.

We still see no fundamental factors justifying euro strength, but one significant factor is now driving dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't reverse so easily.

The red and blue lines have now crossed again, signaling a bullish trend in the market. During the latest reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group increased its long positions by 6,800 and reduced its short positions by 2,500, resulting in a net increase of 9,300 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement even without new tariffs from the U.S. president. On the daily timeframe, it's now officially safe to say that the downtrend has ended. This would never have happened if Trump hadn't started the trade war. As a result, the fundamental background has broken the technical picture—something that doesn't happen often, but it does happen. Unfortunately, the uptrend could also end sharply and unexpectedly if Trump stops imposing tariffs and moves toward de-escalation. So we can't be 100% confident that the growth will continue.

For April 22, we identify the following trading levels: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1177) and Kijun-sen (1.1419) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to place a Stop Loss at breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This helps protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

No important events or reports are scheduled on Tuesday in the Eurozone or the U.S. However, last week showed that major events no longer guarantee any movement or reaction in the market. Monday proved that a powerful move can happen even without any news, so be prepared for anything.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 27? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair reached 1.3580 — heights the British pound hadn't seen in over three years. As we've said

Paolo Greco 07:04 2025-05-27 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 27? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, which had started back on Friday. Only in the second half

Paolo Greco 07:04 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 27: No Reason to Be Upset

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Monday, although it pulled back slightly during the day. This retreat followed the announcement that the increase in tariffs for the European

Paolo Greco 05:26 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 27: The Market Is Starting to Get Angry

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair initially rose following Trump's announcement that tariffs on EU goods would increase to 50% starting June 1. However, the pair subsequently fell after Trump

Paolo Greco 05:26 2025-05-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 26th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3570 level and planned to make entry decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A decline

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:03 2025-05-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 26th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1416 level as a key area for making trading decisions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. After

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:59 2025-05-26 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 26? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also showed a confident upward movement on Friday, driven by the overall uptrend observed over the past two weeks

Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-05-26 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 26? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement after bouncing from the 1.1267 level during a brief correction. The uptrend

Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-05-26 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 26: The British Pound Back on Top

The GBP/USD currency pair broke out of its sideways channel through the upper boundary, paused briefly to "think it over," waited for new aggressive moves from Trump, and then confidently

Paolo Greco 03:44 2025-05-26 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 26: A New Collapse of the Dollar

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded higher. The dollar has been falling for two consecutive weeks, and the market shows an unrelenting desire to resume the uptrend that began

Paolo Greco 03:44 2025-05-26 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.