Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy—particularly its decision to hold interest rates steady and slow down quantitative tightening (QT)—could provide meaningful support for Bitcoin. According to this view, the world's largest cryptocurrency no longer needs to fear hitting rock bottom. But not everyone agrees with that assessment.
On Wednesday, March 19, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainty. The news sparked a slight uptick across major crypto markets.
However, following the decision, Bitcoin slipped 1.8% to $84,400. By Friday, March 21, BTC was trading at $84,150, remaining within a tight range.
Fed holds rates, hints at cuts – what does it mean for markets?
While many market participants anticipated the Fed's decision, hopes were high for a more dovish tone and rate cuts beginning in 2025. In its statement, the Fed suggested it expects to lower rates twice by the end of the year.
The Fed emphasized in its statement:
- The US economy continues to grow.
- Unemployment remains low and stable.
- Inflation is still moderately high.
- The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
- The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.
However, the Fed also noted that uncertainty in the economic outlook had increased, prompting it to monitor risks closely. Starting in April, the Fed will ease the pace of balance sheet reduction:
- The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
- The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.
This effectively softens QT and signals a possible shift toward more accommodative policy. Analysts now widely expect two rate cuts by year-end.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that a slowdown in QT will support Bitcoin. With the Fed scaling back Treasury runoff starting in April, Hayes believes that QT is essentially over, a move that could ease liquidity pressures and benefit risky assets, including crypto.
However, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto, disagrees. He contends that QT isn't over in principle and that the Fed is merely slowing the pace of liquidity withdrawal—from $60 billion to $40 billion per month.
How are markets reacting?
Even though rates remained unchanged, expectations for cuts have risen. Analysts now see a 16% chance of a rate cut in May and more than 50% in June.
The S&P 500, however, continues to face headwinds amid ongoing trade tensions. Nick Pakrin, an analyst at The Coin Bureau, noted that investors were hoping for a more accommodative policy, although the Federal Reserve did not appear to be in a hurry to restart its monetary stimulus measures.
Experts point out that the Fed typically refrains from aggressive stimulus until rates approach zero. For now, any increase in global liquidity may come more from China and Europe than the US.
Trump pressures the Fed; Powell stays the course
President Donald Trump has spent months pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, but Powell has held firm.
Nathan Cox, CIO at Two Prime Digital Assets, said that while Trump's trade wars were contributing to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve remained focused on macroeconomic data rather than political noise coming from the White House.
Should the Fed commit to easing, crypto markets could respond swiftly. "Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025," research firm Bernstein predicts. "But if economic instability worsens, that rally could be delayed until 2026."
According to data from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, sentiment in the Bitcoin market has dropped to levels not seen since January 2023. The company's Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Index fell to just 20 points—the lowest reading in two years and well below the threshold needed to sustain upward momentum.
CryptoQuant warned that the deteriorating macroeconomic and cryptocurrency environment was lowering the chances of a sustained Bitcoin rally in the near future.
Historically, Bitcoin has needed a sentiment score above 60 to support major price increases. Prolonged periods below 40 have typically aligned with bear markets. If the index remains under 40 for an extended time, it could signal a deeper downturn.
Survey data from forecasting network MYRIAD suggests that 68% of respondents expect Bitcoin to stay above $83,000 through next week—but anticipate a pullback afterward.
