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31.03.2023 10:18 AM
Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on March 31
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Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD

The test of 1.2358 during yesterday's European session gave off a sell signal, which resulted in a price decrease of over 30 pips.

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Markets are likely to focus on the upcoming UK GDP data for Q4, which is forecast to revise negative. They will also pay attention to the balance of payments, as well as the overall investment change. Weak readings are likely to limit the upside potential near monthly highs, which could lead to a fall in GBP/USD. The UK Nationwide house price index will not be of much interest to traders.

US statistics in the afternoon are important as the core PCE index and data on personal income and expenditures could bring back demand for dollar, provided that the numbers are positive. Consumer sentiment and expectations indices from the University of Michigan could also affect the direction of the pair as long as there is a strong divergence from expectations.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2397 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2434 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth is possible, but it will only be after good statistics from the UK.

When buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Pound can also be bought at 1.2367, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2397 and 1.2434.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2367 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2333. Pressure may intensify as it is the end of the month.

When selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2397, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2367 and 1.2333.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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