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28.07.2022 02:09 PM
Premarket trading on July 28. US stock indices to plunge following GDP data
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Futures on US stock indices declined slightly on Thursday after a stellar rally in the previous session. Stocks surged following the Fed's meeting and a 0.75 basis point rate increase. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index fell by 47 or 0.2%. The S&P 500 futures lost 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 0.6%.

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After the Fed's monetary policy decision, investors were confident that the Fed would be able to rein in inflation without the risk of a recession. It appears Jerome Powell's dovish statements the Fed will make a final decision on the key rate at the September meeting taking into account inflation data for August somewhat fueled optimism on Wall Street. So, many analysts are betting on the stabilization of the stock market, which has performed an upward correction after a massive sell-off this spring. Following the results of yesterday's session, the Dow jumped by more than 400. The S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite added 2.6% and 4.06%, respectively.

Given such a market reaction, investors seem to believe that the economy remains resilient and the Fed's actions aimed at combating inflation by raising interest rates will not hurt it. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said at a press conference that he does not believe that the economy has entered a recession. "I do not think the US is currently in a recession. And the reason is, there are just too many areas of the economy that are performing too well," he said.

Today, the GDP data for the second quarter will be in the limelight. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the second consecutive negative quarter will indicate the start of a recession in the economy. If so, stocks may drop drastically today. Analysts expect the economy to expand by only 0.4% after a sharp contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter. If the reading is negative, a rally on Wall Street will end.

Today, Apple, Amazon, Intel, and Roku are going to reveal their earnings reports after the end of trading.

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Premarket trading:

Spirit Airlines shares rose by 3.9% in the premarket after the announcement of the company's acquisition by JetBlue. JetBlue said it would pay $33.50 per share in cash for Spirit.

The shares of solar energy companies have also risen significantly. Such an increase occurred after Democratic Senator Joe Manchin agreed to provide financial support for clean energy companies. Shares of Sunrun (RUN) grew by 11.2%, Sunnova (NOVA) advanced by 12.9%, First Solar (FSLR) jumped by 9.9%, and SunPower (SPWR) soared by 11.9%.

Harley-Davidson, a motorcycle manufacturer, shares added 5% in the premarket after the company reported higher-than-expected revenue for the second quarter. Ford shares gained 6.3% in premarket trading as the company beat estimates for second-quarter earnings. Adjusted earnings per share were 68 cents, beating Wall Street estimates of 45 cents,

Outlook for S&P500

The bulls pushed the index to new swing highs yesterday. They are not ready to give up. So, the index is likely to rise higher. Its further movements will largely depend on the US GDP report. To cement an upward movement, the price needs to return to $4,040 as soon as possible. It will open the way to the resistance level of $4,065. If so, an increase to $4,090 may take place. After that, the bears are likely to return to the market. At least there will be those who will be willing to lock into profits. A more distant target will be the $4,122 level. If the new earnings reports and the second-quarter GDP figure are weak, the bulls will have to defend the nearest support level of $4,000. However, it is unlikely to consolidate above this level. If so, the breakout will push the index back to $3,965. If this scenario comes true, the index will sink to $3,942 and $3,905. At the level of $3,872, the bulls could try to regain momentum.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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