Bitcoin once again attempted to move above $78,000 today, but so far without success. Ethereum is also trading around $2,500.

Meanwhile, we remain in a consolidation and accumulation zone, and last week's rise received rare structural confirmation for the crypto market. As a reminder, Bitcoin rose by approximately 22%, from the mid-$63,000s to nearly $79,000, before entering consolidation. However, futures open interest, measured in coins, fell by approximately 11% over the same period, to around 312,600 BTC from 353,500 BTC before the rise, its lowest level in a month. The dollar value of open interest increased by approximately 8%, but solely because Bitcoin itself became more expensive, rather than due to an inflow of new borrowed capital into the derivatives market.

All of this indicates that Bitcoin's rise was driven by the spot market. This directly contrasts with the classic pattern of an overheated futures rally, in which rising prices are accompanied by a simultaneous increase in open interest, creating an increasingly fragile structure that is vulnerable to cascading liquidations at the first correction.

Flows into regulated market infrastructure also support this view. Nearly $2 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week, and an institutional inflow of this scale cannot be explained solely by the closing of short positions on exchanges, since ETFs operate with actual investor capital.

The nearest major test for the market remains the psychological $80,000 level, where a large cluster of option strikes and technical resistance are concentrated. Bitcoin's ability to consolidate above this level without another wave of aggressive leverage accumulation will be the key indicator of whether the move can be sustained.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the entry point is reached around $78,100, with a target of $78,900. Around $78,900, I will close the long position and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $77,500 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with targets of $78,100 and $78,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the entry point is reached around $77,500, with a target of $76,700. Around $76,700, I will close the short position and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $78,100 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with targets of $77,500 and $76,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if the entry point is reached around $2,480, with a target of $2,510. Around $2,510, I will close the long position and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,455 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with targets of $2,480 and $2,510.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if the entry point is reached around $2,455, with a target of $2,425. Around $2,425, I will close the short position and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,480 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with targets of $2,455 and $2,425.