Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1697 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move in the pair.

A strong business activity report set the tone for trading on Friday and provided support for the dollar. The composite PMI rose to 56.0, a peak in 52 months, while the services index soared to 56.8, a peak not seen in 20 months, indicating the best quarter for American business in four years. Against this backdrop, the euro lost ground, even though similar positive reports for the Eurozone had also been released earlier. Robust data boosted demand for the dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair lower. Moreover, the report contained a reassuring signal for the Federal Reserve, as cost inflation slowed to its lowest level since February and the rise in producer prices was the weakest since November, reducing pressure on the central bank.

Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with an empty economic calendar, placing it at the mercy of external factors. The absence of data from the Eurozone means that traders will have no internal reasons to reassess their positions. As a result, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain within a sideways channel but retains the chances for continued growth along the established trend. While the American currency remains under some pressure, the euro has the support to hold its ground and, under favorable conditions, move higher. Any new statements from the U.S. Treasury could undermine the dollar's fragile advantage.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1688 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1707. At 1.1707, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to rise in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1670, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1688 and 1.1707.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1670 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I plan to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1688 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1670 and 1.1647.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.