empty
10.01.2025 01:06 PM
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 10th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2277 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A decline followed by a false breakout at this level led to a solid buying opportunity for the pound, resulting in a correction of more than 30 points. The technical picture for the second half of the day has been completely revised.

This image is no longer relevant

For Opening Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Given the lack of seller activity during European trading, it's evident that the focus has shifted to the U.S. session. UK data was ignored, meaning market direction will now be determined by figures on nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and average hourly earnings. Only significantly better-than-expected data can trigger new pound sales and dollar purchases. Otherwise, GBP/USD may experience a larger upward correction.

In case of another decline, I expect buyer activity near the new support level of 1.2270, formed after the first half of the day. A false breakout there will create a good buying opportunity, targeting a slight recovery in GBP/USD toward resistance at 1.2319. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range from above after weak U.S. data will provide a new entry point for longs, aiming for 1.2365, where buyers are likely to encounter more significant resistance. The ultimate target will be the 1.2412 area, where I plan to lock in profits.

If GBP/USD declines and there's no bullish activity at 1.2270, the pound could fall further. In this case, only a false breakout near the next support at 1.2221 would justify opening long positions. I will also consider buying GBP/USD on a rebound from the 1.2190 low, targeting a 30–35 point correction intraday.

For Opening Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers remain in control, but this could change if U.S. labor market and inflation data disappoint. Therefore, defending the 1.2319 resistance level remains a priority for bears. A false breakout there will provide a selling opportunity, targeting support at 1.2270. A breakout and retest of this range from below will trigger stop-loss orders, paving the way to 1.2221—a new monthly low—indicating a strengthening bearish trend. The final target will be the 1.2190 area, where profits will be locked in.

If demand for the pound returns after the data, and sellers fail to show activity around 1.2319—where moving averages also favor bears—sales should be deferred until resistance at 1.2365 is tested. I'll sell there only on a false breakout. If no downward movement occurs there, I'll consider short positions on a rebound from 1.2412, aiming for a 30–35 point downward correction intraday.

This image is no longer relevant

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The December 31 COT report showed increases in both long and short positions. Overall, the balance of forces hasn't changed much, as many traders adopted a wait-and-see approach at the end of the year following the Bank of England's final meeting. The BoE's future stance remains uncertain, so market focus will likely shift to Donald Trump's inauguration and its implications for UK tariffs. If Trump's policies are softer and don't involve restrictive tariffs on the UK, the pound could regain strength. Otherwise, significant growth in GBP/USD is unlikely in the near term.

The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 1,644 to 86,202, while short non-commercial positions rose by 132 to 65,367. The gap between long and short positions widened by 1,226.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling further declines for the pair.

Note: The periods and prices of moving averages are based on the H1 hourly chart and may differ from daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

The lower boundary of the indicator near 1.2270 will act as support in the event of a decline.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Identifies the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 50 (yellow on the chart); Period – 30 (green on the chart).
  • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long non-commercial positions: The total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions: The total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 11 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra esterlina volvió al mínimo semanal

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención al nivel

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:06 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 11 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro volvió a caer

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención al nivel

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:06 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 10 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra tiene dificultades para subir por encima de la cifra 36

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 10 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra tiene dificultades para subir por encima

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:41 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 10 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro permanece dentro del canal

Ayer se formó solo un punto de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que sucedió allí. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:41 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par GBP/USD el 9 de julio. ¿El dólar se sintió como un rey?

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes continuó la caída que había comenzado la semana pasada. Recordemos que la semana pasada la moneda estadounidense tenía suficientes razones para fortalecerse

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par EUR/USD para el 9 de julio. El dólar se mantiene firmemente en el canal.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el martes volvió a negociarse a la baja, aunque nuevamente no había ninguna razón para el fortalecimiento de la moneda estadounidense. Ayer se supo

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-07-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD plan para la sesión europea el 8 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra está lista para continuar cayendo

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención al nivel

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:55 2025-07-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD plan para la sesión europea el 8 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro no tiene intención de caer por mucho tiempo

EUR/USD plan para la sesión europea el 8 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro no tiene intención de caer por mucho

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión estadounidense del 7 de julio (análisis de las operaciones de la mañana) El euro sigue bajo presión

En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención al nivel de 1.1749 y planeé tomar decisiones de entrada al mercado desde ese punto. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:01 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBPUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 04 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La presión sobre la libra se mantiene

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino presté atención al nivel de 1.3659

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:40 2025-07-04 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.