Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1616 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar reacted poorly to the University of Michigan data. According to the report, the consumer sentiment index for May 2026 fell to 44.8 points, and inflation expectations surged to 4.8%. All this indicates that market expectations regarding the trajectory of interest rates remain a key driver for the dollar. Despite the weakness in the consumer sector, market participants continue to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep rates high for longer than previously expected to fully suppress inflationary pressures.

Given that there is no data from the Eurozone today, traders are likely to continue awaiting news from the Middle East. Many media outlets report breakthroughs in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The framework agreement is said to be 95% complete — this is reported by the NYT, CBS, and Axios, citing official sources. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on May 24 that significant progress had been made and revealed details of the deal, including the opening of Hormuz for 60 days without a toll and Iran's transfer of enriched uranium. Concurrently, negotiations to ease sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets are ongoing. However, all these statements from American politicians sound appealing, but it is far from certain that Iran will agree to them.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1650 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1678. At 1.1678, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately on the bounce, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after positive news regarding the agreement. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1630 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1650 and 1.1678.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1630 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1601, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately on the bounce (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1650 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can anticipate a drop to the opposing levels of 1.1630 and 1.1601.

What the Chart Indicates:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where take profit can be set or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where take profit can be set or profits can be locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.