فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 20.03.2023

20.03.2023 11:53 PM

ECB is not going to stop, but together with the Bank of England may slow down the rate increase

Last week and this week had to pass exclusively under the accompaniment of central banks. Let me remind you that the European Central Bank held its meeting last week, and now the Bank of England and the Fed will hold their own respective meetings. Last week, the only important report was on European inflation, but unexpectedly, the week was overloaded with information on banks, which unexpectedly for many people went bust. First, three banks in the US "distinguished themselves", and then - one of the largest banks in the European Union with a long history. The Swiss bank was rescued, but only because another bank decided to acquire it, which will take all debts with the support of the Swiss government. This should stop Credit Suisse's shares from falling, stabilize the banking sector, restore (at least somewhat) people's confidence in the banks, and stop the panic in the markets. But I still didn't expect to see such movements from the currency pairs.

Meanwhile, one of the ECB members, Martins Kazaks, said on Monday that the central bank has not yet finished raising the rate and will continue to implement the "baseline scenario". I assume that the "baseline scenario" means another rate hike in May by 25 basis points, as was planned a few months ago. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde made a clear point. The ECB intends to be more flexible in the near future and raise the rate as much as the current situation with inflation will require and as much as the state of the economy will allow an increase. In my opinion, the ECB is preparing for another slowdown in the rate hike in May. If this is true, then the rate will continue to grow by 25 basis points.

I also believe that the 25 bps hike is not satisfactory for the BoE and the ECB. Inflation in those areas is not rapidly declining and remains quite high in comparison with the United States, where the Fed rate, let me remind you, is higher. Based on this, I conclude that the ECB and the BoE will lag behind the Fed when it comes to rates, and will do so for a long time and are unlikely to catch up with the US central bank. If inflation is slowing down at a good pace in the United States and can get as close as possible to the target mark in a year, then with the current disposition of European or British inflation, you should not expect such a result. Consequently, the euro and the pound do not have a long-term news background that they can use for building an uptrend against the US dollar. I believe that for both instruments, the downward movement will take a longer form. And so I do not expect a renewal of the uptrend.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the uptrend has ended. So now you can consider shorts with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.0284, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. At this time, a correction wave 2 or b can still be built, in which case it will take a more extended form. It is better to open short positions on the MACD's bearish signals.

The wave pattern of GBP/USD suggests a downtrend. At this time, you can consider shorts with targets located near 1.1641, which equates to a Fibonacci 38.2% reversal of the MACD to the downside. A Stop Loss order could be placed above the peaks of waves e and b. Wave c may already be completed, but in this case, I expect the construction of the descending wave e with targets again below the current marks by 400-500 pips.

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