10.02.202611:08:01UTC+00US Small Business Optimism Falls in January

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US edged down to 99.3 in January 2026 from 99.5 in December 2025, undershooting consensus expectations of 99.9. Among the 10 components of the index, three improved and seven declined.

The largest movement came from expected real sales volume, which rose 6 points to a net 16%. Meanwhile, 16% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, a decrease of 3 points from December. In contrast, 13% identified the cost or availability of insurance as their top concern, an increase of 4 points; insurance has not reached this share as a primary problem since December 2018.

Capital spending strengthened as well: 60% of owners reported making capital outlays in the past six months, up 4 points from December and the highest reading since November 2023.

“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth. Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.