The main event on Monday was the launch of an open-source AI model by the Chinese startup DeepSeek. According to the developers, they achieved this at significantly lower costs compared to OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and certainly Nvidia. As a result, by the end of the day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by 3.07%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.46%, and the Dollar Index rose by 0.08%.

The EUR/USD pair managed to stay within the 1.0458–1.0520 range on Monday, but today it began to decline, already falling below the lower boundary of this range. The Marlin oscillator is showing signs of a stronger downward reversal. A battle is likely at the 1.0350 level, as support is bolstered by the MACD line. If the price reaches this level, it will indicate the strength and determination of the bears. Ultimately, the pair is expected to target the support of 1.0135.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has consolidated below the zero line, and the price is attempting to settle below the 1.0458 level. If this consolidation is successful, there is a high likelihood that the price will break through the MACD line at 1.0412. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow, where no rate cuts are expected, market participants may begin to show increased activity as early as today.